Agro-Met Department Expects Normal Monsoons
I was beginning to be afraid, very afraid. This summer, Bangalore has been particularly oppressive, with temperatures regularly soaring to the high 30s (centigrade, that is). You can feel the heat rising off of the pavement, off of your walls and off of your furniture. The fans are on all day, A/C on all night. Added to this, a report a few days back that monsoons were expected to be weak this season.
Well, the newspapers this morning had a different story to tell. Deccan Herald reports that the Agro Meteorology Department of the University of Agricultural Sciences in the city has forecast a “normal monsoon…for the year” and the monsoon “is expected to enter the state by June 5.”
All I can say is, cool!
The summer has been really oppressive this year and any news of a good monsoon gladdens the heart. About these various agencies, prediction of the onset of the monsoon and its strength is not just a matter of scientific data collection. It is also heaviliy influcenced by political constraints. You can read more about how this works in Alexander Frater’s “Chasing the Monsoon” book. However, I do hope that these guys this time are bang on target :-)
22% below normal was the prediction. Two different agencies predicting two different trends. I only know whom to believe. None. From my own personal observations and trend analysis, I can tell you that it would be below normal this year. It is a cycle and we should be prepared for less rains this year.
Bangalore’s avg temp is rising by a degree or two every year…thanks to the cutting of trees,traffic,pollution n population…
Bangalore has been rather warm in the summers through most of the 90s, and later on, nothing new. I think record temperatures were hit sometime in ’98/’99.
The met department has never been on the ball with their predictions. 2002 was predicted as a “good/normal monsoon” year – and it was a bad, bad drought. They’ve also predicted “poor rainfall/monsoon” and the years have turned to be good monsoon years(in the 90s, for example).
They make astrologers seem more accurate in predictions!
This year (2006) monsoon is about to noramal like 2001 monsoon year…….double onset phenamena also take place one is 27Th May (+/- 4 Days) and second is 9th June (+/- 4 days)
Great work!
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